BAFRO - Seminar 4 - Meadows: Why systems surprise us

Think of languages, words, maps, statistics, books, databases, computer programs and the mental models.

They will never be the real world.

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We are successful species because of it.

Our complex and sophisticated mental models are developed from direct, intimate experiences of nature, people and organizations immediately around us.

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- We keep track of only a few variables at a time in our heads.
- We draw illogical conclusions from accurate assumptions or vice versa.

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A system is a big black box of which we can't unlock the locks and all we can find about it, is what goes in and goes out.

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Its interlocking stocks, flows and feedback loops. The diagrams of boxes and arrows are pictures of a system.

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1. A goal-seeking balancing feedback loop: approaches or hold a dynamic equilibrium.
2. A reinforcing feedback loop: generates exponential growth.

Together they are capable of growth, decay or equilibrium.

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Understand the connections between the hand releasing, the slinky (event), the resulting oscillations (behavior) and the mechanical characteristics of the Slinky's helical coil (structure)

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- They look primarily at the behavior level.
- They are more focused on flows than stocks.
- Can result in: misunderstanding of the dynamics of economic systems of the reasons for their behavior.
- Good for predicting near-term performance of economy.
- Quite bad at predicting the longer-term performance.
- Terrible at telling on how to improve the performance of the economy.

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